000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192106
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Sep 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 125W from 02N to 17N, moving west 
at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is evident near the 
wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A segment of the monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 1010 mb
low pressure near 15N105W to 16N110W to 12N115W to 10N130W to
10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N 
between 103W and 106W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak deep layer ridging is observed between Baja California and 
125W is supporting moderate to fresh winds off Baja California 
Norte with combined seas to 7 ft. A scatterometer pass from 18
UTC indicated the 15 to 20 kt mainly north of 30N. Winds and 
seas will diminish by Sun into early next week as the ridge 
weakens.

Broad low pressure has formed along the monsoon trough near 
15N105W, approximately 210 nm SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico. The 
estimated pressure is 1010 mb. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms persist south of the low pressure. A scatterometer 
pass from 15 UTC indicated moderate to fresh SE winds funneling 
along the coast between Acapulco and Manzanillo, northeast of the
low pressure. The low pressure is expected to deepen further 
over the next several days as moves to the south of Los Cabos, 
possibly bringing fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft to 
the Revillagigedo Islands through Tue. There is a high chance 
this low will develop into a tropical depression through mid week
as it moves westward. 

Farther south, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec region, starting tonight. Elsewhere, a weak 
pressure pattern across the region will result in mainly gentle 
to moderate winds and slight seas. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon 
trough. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon 
trough. Combined seas are currently in the 5 to 6 ft range in a 
mix of wind waves and southerly swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough along 131N from 18N to 25N is breaking up the
subtropical ridge and supporting only gentle moderate trade 
winds farther south into the deep tropics. The ridge will 
gradually build eastward north of 20N through early next week, 
and trade winds will strengthen somewhat between the ridge and 
the monsoon trough.

Farther east, seas are 7 to 8 ft in an area along the monsoon 
trough between 105W and 115W. These seas are within 240 nm of 
the new low pressure centered near 15N105W and are due to a 
combination of moderate to fresh SW winds and longer period SW 
swell. 

$$
Christensen