000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191528
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Sep 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 123W from 02N to 17N, moving west 
at 10 to 15 kt. It shows up well in the lower half of the 
atmosphere, southwest of a upper level ridge. No significant 
convection is observed near the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A segment of the monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 16N101W.
Another segment extends from 18N110W to 13N115W to 10N135W to
11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N 
between 103W and 106W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak deep layer ridging is observed between Baja California and 
125W supporting moderate to fresh winds off Baja California 
Norte along with combined seas to 7 ft. Winds and seas will 
diminish by Sun into early next week as the ridge weakens.

Broad low pressure is likely to form south of Cabo Corrientes 
near the northernmost extent of the monsoon trough possibly later
today. This may support fresh winds off the Jalisco coast by 
Sun. The low pressure is expected to deepen further Mon as moves
to the south of Los Cabos, possibly bringing fresh to strong
winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft to the Revillagigedo Islands through
Tue. There is a moderate chance this low will develop into a 
tropical depression through mid week. 

Farther south, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec region, starting tonight. Elsewhere, a weak 
pressure pattern across the region will result in mainly gentle 
to moderate winds and slight seas. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon 
trough. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon 
trough. Combined seas are currently in the 5 to 6 ft range in a 
mix of wind waves and southerly swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough along 130N from 18N to 25N is breaking up the
subtropical ridge and supporting only gentle moderate trade 
winds farther south into the deep tropics. The ridge will 
gradually build eastward north of 20N through early next week, 
and trade winds will strengthen somewhat between the ridge and 
the monsoon trough.

Farther east, seas are 7 to 8 ft in an area along the monsoon 
trough between 105W and 115W, a combination of moderate to fresh 
SW winds and longer period SW swell. These seas will subside to 
below 8 ft today. Reinforcing SW swell will arrive Sun, allowing 
seas to build to 8 ft again in this vicinity.

$$
Christensen