000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190905
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Sep 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 122W from 03N to 19N, moving west 
at 10 to 15 kt. It shows up well in the lower half of the 
atmosphere, southwest of a upper level ridge. No significant 
convection is observed near the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 16N105W to 13N118W to 
14N132W to 14N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
08N to 17N between 94W and 106W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak deep layer ridging is observed between Baja California and 
125W. This ridge is expected to build slightly today as a trough 
north of the area moves into southern California. This pattern 
will support moderate to fresh winds off Baja California Norte 
along with combined seas to 7 ft. Winds and seas will diminish 
by Sun into early next week as the ridge weakens.

Broad low pressure is likely to form south of Cabo Corrientes 
near the northernmost extent of the monsoon trough. This may 
support fresh winds off the Jalisco coast by Sun. Farther south, 
fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region, starting tonight. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern 
across the region will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds 
and slight seas. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon 
trough. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon 
trough. Combined seas are currently in the 5 to 6 ft range in a 
mix of wind waves and southerly swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Karina has weakened to a surface trough. 
Moderate NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mainly NE swell 
persist between the trough and the subtropical ridge which is 
displaced well to the northwest. Gentle to moderate trade winds 
are noted farther south into the deep tropics. The ridge will 
gradually build eastward north of 20N through early next week, 
and trade winds will strengthen somewhat between the ridge and 
the monsoon trough.

Farther east, seas are 7 to 8 ft in an area along the monsoon 
trough between 105W and 115W, a combination of moderate to fresh 
SW winds and longer period SW swell. These seas will subside to 
below 8 ft today. Reinforcing SW swell will arrive Sun, allowing 
seas to build to 8 ft again in this vicinity.

$$
Mundell