000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190322
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Sep 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 120W from 03N to 19N, moving west 
at 10 to 15 kt. It shows up well in the lower half of the 
atmosphere, southwest of a upper level ridge. No significant 
convection is observed near the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 16N105W to 13N118W to 
14N132W to 14N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
09N to 15N between 97W and 109W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak deep layer ridging is observed between Baja California and 
125W, building east of the dissipating remnant low pressure of 
Karina. This ridge will build slightly through Sat as a trough 
north of the area moves into southern California. This pattern 
is supporting moderate to fresh winds off Baja California Norte 
along with combined seas to 7 ft. Winds and seas will diminish 
by Sun into early next week as the ridge weakens.

Broad low pressure may be starting to form south of Cabo 
Corrientes near the northernmost extent of the monsoon trough. 
This may support fresh winds off the coast of Jalisco by Sun. 
Farther south, fresh to strong winds may pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region by Sat night. Elsewhere, a weak pressure 
pattern across the region will result in mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and slight seas. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon 
trough. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon 
trough. Combined seas are currently in the 5 to 6 ft range in a 
mix of wind waves and southerly swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Karina will continue to move westward and 
gradually weaken to a surface trough overnight. Moderate NE 
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mainly NE swell persist between 
the low and subtropical ridge which is displaced well to the 
northwest. Mostly gentle to moderate trade winds are noted 
farther south into the deep tropics. The ridge will gradually 
build eastward north of 20N through early next week, resulting 
trade winds increasing between the ridge and the monsoon trough.

Farther east, seas are 7 to 8 ft in an area along the monsoon 
trough between 105W and 115W, a combination of moderate to fresh 
SW winds and longer period SW swell. These seas will subside to 
below 8 ft through Sat, but reinforcing SW swell will arrive 
thereafter allowing seas to build to 8 ft again in this vicinity.

$$
Mundell