000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171555
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Sep 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 111W N of 04N, and is drifting west. It
shows up well in the lower to middle levels of the atmosphere,
south of a upper level ridge. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 180 nm west of the trough axis. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 15N105W to 1010 mb low
pressure near 07N125W. Another segment extends from 15N125W to
14N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of
the coast of Nicaragua. Scattered moderate isolated strong from 
08N to 10N between 91W and 93W. Scattered moderate from 10N to
12N between 97W and 100W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure will build weakly southward across the 
northern waters, between Karina and Baja California. This pattern
will produce moderate northerly winds and seas across the 
offshore waters of Baja California Norte through Sun. A weak 
surface trough will develop well offshore of Cabo Corrientes. 
This will maintain light to gentle winds and slight seas through 
Sun. 

Looking ahead, strong gap winds are possible through the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by Sun related to developing low pressure in the 
southwest Gulf of Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon 
trough. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon 
trough. Combined seas are currently in the 4-7 ft range in a mix
of wind waves and S to SW swell, except 5 to 8 ft south of the 
equator. Seas are also near 8 ft south of Panama due to SW swell,
but this will be subsiding by tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Karina is located near 23N 126W 1007 MB AT 
1200 UTC moving W at 7 KT. A recent ship observation indicated
winds are 20 kt within 60 nm on the northwest side of the low,
which hints maximum winds are likely 20 to 25 kt. Seas are likely
8 to 9 ft within 90 nm of the low, although this will be
subsiding through late today. There is no significant convection
observed near the low. The low will continue moving westward and
gradually weaken overnight then veer southwestward late Thu and 
dissipate into a trough Fri through Sat. 

A dissipating stationary front is over the NW waters from 
32N130W to beyond 26N140W. Light and variable winds are ahead of
the front. Light to moderate NE trades prevail across the waters
southwest of the remnant low of Karina and north of the monsoon 
trough. Combined seas are generally 4-7 ft. A broad area of fresh
monsoonal flow prevails south of the monsoon trough between 105W
to 110W, with seas generally 7-8 ft in this region. This will 
persist through Fri. 

$$
Christensen