000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161617 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Sep 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 22.6N 123.9W at 16/1500 UTC moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. No significant convection is noted near the center of Karina. Karina will continue to weaken through Thu as it moves farther west. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 106W N of 04N, moving W at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 14N95W to 09N115W, and from 16N128W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate from 15N to 20N between 105W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Karina. South to southwest swell from Karina will continue to spread north and northeastward cross the offshore waters of Baja California and the entrance to the Gulf of California through late today. Outside of Karina, light and variable winds prevail W of 112W, with gentle to moderate northwest to north winds elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft outside of the influence of Karina, except 3 ft or less in the central and northern Gulf of California. Moderate northerly winds have built cross the offshore N of 20N tonight in the wake of Karina, while light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the week. By Sat, a weak trough is expected to develop offshore of Cabo Corrientes extending SW and well offshore, and will yield light and variable winds southeast of it and moderate to fresh northwest winds northwest of the trough building across the Baja waters. By Sun, the monsoon trough is forecast to lift northward along the outer offshore waters area allowing for E-SE moderate to fresh winds N of it to the S of Cabo Corrientes. Seas will be mainly 4-7 ft in mixed swell across the waters, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough, which currently extends across the offshore waters roughly along 10N-11N, and will lift northward and inland during the next few days. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough Combined seas are currently in the 4-7 ft range in a mix of wind waves and S to SW swell, except 5 to 8 ft south of the equator. Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail over the waters generally S of 10N for the next several days. Combined seas may slightly increase in the waters S of the equator through Thu night as S to SW swell moves across the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Karina. Tropical storm conditions and large seas will shift north and northwestward over the next 24 hours, and impact the waters between 118W and 130W primarily with swell. A stationary front is over the NW waters from 32N132W to beyond 26N140W where it continues as a dissipating stationary front. Moderate SW winds ahead of the front has become light tonight. The front will drift a little bit more E-SE during the next couple of days before stalling out and dissipating. Weak high pressure ahead of the front has collapsed, leaving a weak NE to Sw aligned ridge. South of the ridge, mainly moderate to locally fresh NE trades prevail across the waters north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are generally 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are found NW of the remnants of low pressure near 14N135W to 20N, where seas are locally 8 ft. A broad area of fresh to locally strong monsoonal flow prevails south of the monsoon trough between 125W and 135W, with seas generally 7-8 ft in this region. Decaying, long-period mixed southerly swell lingers across the waters E of 130W, with 6-8 ft combined seas south of the equator. New southerly swell will move across the southern waters through Thu seas to around 8 ft. $$ Christensen