000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160939 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Sep 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 21.7N 123.7W at 0900 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm in the N semicircle. This associated convection has decreased considerably during the past 12 hours as Karina has reached cooler waters and gradually more stable air. Karina will continue to weaken and become a tropical depression near 22.4N 124.8W late this afternoon, and a remnant low of 30 kt near 23.1N 126.1W by early Thu morning. The remnant low will then drift SW and gradually dissipate through Fri night. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 104W N of 04N, moving W at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to 09.5N81W to 12.5N97W TO 09N115W, then resumes SW of Karina from 15N127W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 10N between 81W and 91W, from 10N to 15.5N between 90W and 104W, and within 240 nm either side of line from 07N114W to 21N107W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 125W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Karina. South to southwest swell from Karina will continue to spread north and northeastward cross the offshore waters of Baja California and the entrance to the Gulf of California through late today. Outside of Karina, light and variable winds prevail W of 112W, with gentle to moderate northwest to north winds elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft outside of the influence of Karina, except 3 ft or less in the central and northern Gulf of California. Moderate northerly winds have built cross the offshore N of 20N tonight in the wake of Karina, while light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the week. By Sat, a weak trough is expected to develop offshore of Cabo Corrientes extending SW and well offshore, and will yield light and variable winds southeast of it and moderate to fresh northwest winds northwest of the trough building across the Baja waters. By Sun, the monsoon trough is forecast to lift northward along the outer offshore waters area allowing for E-SE moderate to fresh winds N of it to the S of Cabo Corrientes. Seas will be mainly 4-7 ft in mixed swell across the waters, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough, which currently extends across the offshore waters roughly along 10N-11N, and will lift northward and inland during the next few days. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough Combined seas are currently in the 4-7 ft range in a mix of wind waves and S to SW swell, except 5 to 8 ft south of the equator. Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail over the waters generally S of 10N for the next several days. Combined seas may slightly increase in the waters S of the equator through Thu night as S to SW swell moves across the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Karina. Tropical storm conditions and large seas will shift north and northwestward over the next 24 hours, and impact the waters between 118W and 130W primarily with swell. A cold front is over the NW waters from 32N132W to beyond 26N140W where it continues as a dissipating stationary front. Moderate SW winds ahead of the front has become light tonight. The front will drift a little bit more E-SE during the next couple of days before stalling out and dissipating. Weak high pressure ahead of the front has collapsed, leaving a weak NE to Sw aligned ridge. South of the ridge, mainly moderate to locally fresh NE trades prevail across the waters north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are generally 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are found NW of the remnants of low pressure near 14N135W to 20N, where seas are locally 8 ft. A broad area of fresh to locally strong monsoonal flow prevails south of the monsoon trough between 125W and 135W, with seas generally 7-8 ft in this region. Decaying, long-period mixed southerly swell lingers across the waters E of 130W, with 6-8 ft combined seas south of the equator. New southerly swell will move across the southern waters through Thu seas to around 8 ft. $$ Stripling