529 AXPZ20 KNHC 160341 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Sep 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 21.3N 123.0W at 0300 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm in the NE semicircle and within 120 nm in the SE semicircle. Karina has reached its peak intensity in the past 8 hours and will begin a gradual weakening trend, and become a tropical depression by Thu evening, then is forecast to become a remnant low in two or three days as its drifts SW across the open Pacific. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 103W N of 04N, moving W at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N73W to 09N83W to 10.5N111W, then resumes W-SW of Karina from 17N127W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N E of 86.5W, and from 08.5N to 18N between 104W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 125W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Karina. South to southwest swell from Karina will continue to spread north and northeastward cross the offshore waters of Baja California and the entrance to the Gulf of California through late Wed. Outside of Karina, light and variable winds prevail W of 110W, with gentle to moderate northwest to north winds elsewhere, except gentle to moderate southerly flow in the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-7 ft outside of the influence of Karina, except 3 ft or less in the central and northern Gulf of California. Moderate northerly winds are building across the offshore N of 20N this evening in the wake of Karina, while light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the week. By Sat, a weak trough or low may develop offshore of southern Baja California with light and variable winds southeast of it and moderate to fresh northwest winds northwest of the trough. By Sun, the monsoon trough is forecast to lift northward along the outer offshore waters area allowing for E-SE moderate to fresh winds N of it to the S of Cabo Corrientes. Seas will be mainly 4-7 ft in mixed swell across the waters, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough, which currently extends across the offshore waters roughly along 10N-11N, and will lift northward and inland during the next few days. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough Combined seas are currently in the 4-7 ft range in a mix of wind waves and S to SW swell, except 5 to 8 ft south of the equator. Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail over the waters generally S of 10N for the next several days. Combined seas may slightly increase in the waters S of the equator through Thu night as S to SW swell moves across the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Karina. Tropical storm conditions and large seas will shift north and northwestward over the next few days, and impact the waters between 118W and 130W, as Karina gradually weakens. A cold front is over the NW waters from 32N133W to beyond 27N140W where it continues as a dissipating stationary front, with moderate SW winds ahead of it as noted by afternoon scatterometer data. The front will drift a little bit more E-SE during the next couple of days before stalling out and dissipating. A weak 1021 mb high pressure center near 28N132W this afternoon has collapsed, leaving a weak NE to Sw aligned ridge. South of the ridge, mainly moderate to locally fresh NE trades prevail across the waters north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are generally 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are found NW of the remnants of low pressure near 14N135W to 20N, where seas are locally 8 ft. A broad area of fresh to locally strong monsoonal flow prevails south of the monsoon trough between 125W and 135W, with seas generally 7-8 ft in this region. Decaying, long-period mixed southerly swell lingers across the waters E of 130W, with 6-8 ft combined seas south of the equator. New southerly swell will move across the southern waters through tomorrow keeping seas to around 8 ft. $$ Stripling