000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151615 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Sep 15 2020 Corrected Offshore Waters and Remainder of area sections Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 20.4N 121.1W at 15/1500 UTC moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm in the NE semicircle and 180 nm in the SW semicircle of Karina. Karina is forecast to gradually weaken to a tropical depression by early Thu, becoming a post- tropical remnant low by Thu evening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 100W N of 05N, moving W at around 5-10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N100W to 10N106W, then resumes W-SW of Karina from 17N125W to low pressure near 14N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N E of 82W to Colombia, from 08N to 13N between 86W and 93W, from 08N to 17N between 100W and 103W, from 15N to 20N between 103W and 107W, and also from 06N to 15N between 106W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Karina. South to southwest swell from Karina will continue to spread northward across the offshore waters of Baja California through late today. Outside of Karina, light and variable winds prevail W of 110W, with gentle to moderate northwest to north winds elsewhere, except gentle to moderate southerly flow in the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-7 ft outside of the influence of Karina, except 3 ft or less in the central and northern Gulf of California. Moderate northerly winds will build across the offshore N of 20N or so later this afternoon and evening in the wake of Karina, with light to gentle winds elsewhere through the week. By Sat, a weak trough or low may develop offshore of southern Baja California with light and variable winds southeast of it and moderate to fresh northwest winds northwest of the trough. Seas will be mainly 4-7 ft in mixed swell across the waters, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough, which currently extends across the offshore waters roughly along 10N-11N, and will lift northward and inland during the next few days. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough Combined seas are currently in the 4-7 ft range in a mix of wind waves and S to SW swell, except 5 to 8 ft south of the equator. Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail over the waters generally S of 10N for the next several days. Combined seas may slightly increase in the waters S of the equator through Thu night as S to SW swell moves across the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Karina. Tropical storm conditions and large seas will shift northwestward over the next few days as Karina moves farther away from the offshore waters of Mexico. A cold front continues to drift SE of 30N140W with moderate SW winds ahead of it as noted by recent scatterometer data. The front will drift a little bit more E-SE progress during the next couple of days before stalling out and dissipating. A weak 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 32N126W. South of the ridge, mainly moderate to locally fresh NE trades prevail across the waters north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are generally 4-7 ft. Fresh NE winds are found within 120-180 nm to the NW of low pressure near 14N135W, where seas are locally 8-9 ft. A broad area of fresh to locally strong monsoonal flow prevails south of the monsoon trough between 125W and 135W, with seas generally 7-10 ft in this region. Decaying, long-period mixed southerly swell lingers across the waters E of 130W, with 6-8 ft combined seas south of the equator. New southerly swell will move across the southern waters through tomorrow keeping seas to around 8 ft. $$ Lewitsky