000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141534 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Sep 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 18.1N 118.5W at 14/1500 UTC moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the SW semicircle of Karina. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 240 nm in the SW semicircle of Karina, and within 270 nm SE of a line from 14N122W to 10N129W. Karina is moving toward the NW and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Some slight strengthening is forecast through tonight, with gradual weakening expected to begin on Tue. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 96W N of 04N, moving W at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 11N96W to 13N106W, then resumes W of Karina near 17N125W to low pressure near 14.5N133W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 86W and 90W, from 10N to 14N between 88W and 96W, and within 60-120 nm S-SW of Mexico between 96W and 107W. Similar convection is noted S of Panama and W of Colombia N of 04N and E of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 100W and 106W, from 08N to 12N between 105W and 110W, and also from 08N to 10N between 132W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Karina. South to southwest swell from Karina will continue to spread northward across the Mexican waters from Manzanillo to the Baja California offshore waters through Tue. Moderate northwesterly winds prevail over the Baja California waters north of Punta Eugenia, where seas are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail along the coast of southern Mexico, except in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where a brief pulse of moderate northerly winds is occurring this morning. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, and 4-7 ft elsewhere S of Punta Eugenia. Moderate northerly winds will prevail offshore of Baja California in the wake of Karina, with light to gentle winds elsewhere through the week, except occasionally moderate SE winds in the central and northern Gulf of California. Seas will be mainly 4-7 ft in mixed swell across the waters in the wake of Karina, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California, occasionally 2-4 ft in the central and northern Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough, which extends across the offshore waters roughly along 10N-11N. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are in the 4-7 ft range in a mix of wind waves and S to SW swell. Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail over the waters generally S of 10N for the next several days. Combined seas may slightly increase in the waters E of 90W Tue night through Thu night as S to SW swell moves across the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Karina. Tropical storm conditions and seas of 10-14 ft will shift northwestward over the next few days as Karina moves farther away from the coast of Mexico. A weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered near 28N132W. South of the ridge, mainly moderate to locally fresh NE trades prevail across the waters north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are generally 5-7 ft. Strong NE winds are found within 150-210 nm to the NW of low pressure near 14.5N133W, where seas area locally 8-10 ft. A broad area of fresh to locally strong monsoonal flow prevails south of the monsoon trough between 115W and 135W, with seas generally 7-9 ft in this region. Decaying, long-period S to SW swell lingers across the waters E of 120W, with 6-7 ft combined seas south of the equator. New southerly swell will move across the southern waters this afternoon to raise seas to around 8 ft along the equator through the middle part of the week. $$ Lewitsky