000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140950 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Sep 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 17.9N 118.2W at 0900 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 300 nm SW semicircle of Karina. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 09N to 13.5N between 118W and 127W. Northeasterly wind shear continues to limit intensification of Karina tonight and only minor strengthening is expected through Tue as Karina continues moving WNW, before cooler sea surface temperatures, and a more stable environment, will lead to weakening Wed and Thu. For more information, see the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 95W N of 02N and across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, moving westward at 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N73W to 08N82W to 11N97W, then resumes west of T.S. Karina near 17N123W to low pres near 15N133W 1008 mb to 09N138W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 86W and 110W, and within 180 nm of the coastline from the Gulf of Fonseca to Las Tres Marias Mexico. Scattered moderate convection noted from 07N to 09.5N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Karina. South to southwest swell from Karina will spread northward across the Mexican waters from Manzanillo to the Baja California offshore waters through Tue. Moderate northwesterly winds prevail over the Baja California waters north of Punta Eugenia, where seas are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail along the coast of southern Mexico, where altimeter data indicates seas are 4-6 ft. A pulse of moderate to locally fresh northerly gap winds is expected to persist overnight over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, then diminish after sunrise. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough, which extends across the offshore waters roughly along 10N-11N. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are in the 4-7 ft range in a mix of wind waves and S to SW swell. Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail over the waters generally S of 10N for the next several days. Combined seas may slightly increase in the waters E of 90W Tue night through Wed as S to SW swell moves across the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong SE winds and seas of 1-12 ft are across and just northwest of the Clarion Island area and will gradually shift WNW will Karina later this morning, leading to improving conditions. Tropical storm conditions and seas of 10-14 ft will shift northwestward over the next few days as Karina moves west- northwestward and farther away from the coast of Mexico. A weak 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 28N130W. South of the ridge, mainly moderate to locally fresh NE trades prevail across the waters north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are generally 5-7 ft based on overnight altimeter data. Strong NE winds are found within 210 nm to the NW of low pressure near 15N133W, where seas area locally 8-10 ft. A broad area of fresh to locally strong monsoonal flow prevails south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 125W, with seas generally 7-9 ft in this region. Decaying, long-period S to SW swell lingers across the waters E of 120W, with 7-8 ft combined seas south of the equator. New southerly swell will move across the southern waters this afternoon to raise seas to around 8 ft along the equator through the middle part of the week. $$ Stripling