000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140326 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Sep 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 18.2N 117.1W at 0300 UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 300 nm SW semicircle of Karina. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 09N to 13N between 116W and 127W. Further modest strengthening is expected through Tue as Karina continues moving WNW, before cooler sea surface temperatures, and a more stable environment, will lead to weakening. For more information, see the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 94W N of 02N and across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, moving westward at 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from west of T.S. Karina near 17N120 to 17.5N127W to low pres near 16N131W 1007 mb, then resume from near 10N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N E of 108W, and within 120 nm of the coastline from Nicaragua to Cabo Corietnes Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Karina. South to southwest swell from Karina will spread northward across the Mexican waters from Manzanillo to the Baja California offshore waters through Tue. Gentle to moderate west to northwesterly winds prevail over the Baja California waters. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail along the coast of southern Mexico, where altimeter data indicates seas are 4-6 ft. A pulse of moderate to locally fresh northerly gap winds are expected tonight over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the remnants of the monsoon trough, which extends across the offshore waters roughly along 10N-11N. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are in the 4-7 ft range in a mix of wind waves and S to SW swell. Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail over the waters generally S of 10N for the next several days. Combined seas may slightly increase in the waters E of 90W Tue night through Wed as S to SW swell moves across the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Increasing winds and seas across and south of Clarion Island will spread northwestward over the next several days as Tropical Storm Karina moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. A 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 29N132W. South of the ridge, mainly moderate to locally fresh NE trades prevail across the waters north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are generally 5-7 ft based on recent altimeter data, peaking at 8-9 ft within the fresh flow. A broad area of fresh to locally strong monsoonal flow prevails south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 125W, with seas generally 6-9 ft in this region. Decaying, long-period S to SW swell lingers across the waters E of 120W, with 7-8 ft combined seas south of the equator. New southerly swell may move across the southern waters during the early to middle part of next week. $$ Stripling