000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131511 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Sep 13 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 17.6N 114.7W at 13/1500 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center of Karina. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 113W and 125W. Further strengthening is expected through late Tue before cooler sea surface temperatures, and a more stable environment, will lead to weakening. For more information, see the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 92W N of 02N, moving westward at 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 13N103W, then resumes from near 17N121W to 12N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 90W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 100W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on Tropical Storm Karina. Southerly swell from Karina will spread northward across the Baja California offshore waters later today through early next week. Gentle to moderate west to northwesterly winds prevail over the Baja California waters. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail along the coast of southern Mexico, where altimeter data indicates seas are 4-6 ft. A pulse of moderate to locally fresh northerly gap winds are expected tonight over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough, which extends across the offshore waters roughly along 10N-11N. Elsewhere, winds remain gentle north of the trough near the coast of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, except for higher gusts in monsoon trough convection across the waters of Costa Rica, Nicaragua and El Salvador. Combined seas remain 4-7 ft in wind waves and background S to SW swell. Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will prevail over the waters generally S of 10N for the next several days. Combined seas may slightly increase in the waters E of 90W Tue night through Wed as S to SW swell moves across the region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Increasing winds and seas southeast of Clarion Island this will spread northwestward over the next several days as Tropical Storm Karina moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. Elsewhere, 1006 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough near 17N121W will likely become absorbed in the southwestern portion of Tropical Storm Karina during the next few days. A 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 28N131W. South of the ridge, mainly moderate NE trades prevail across the waters north of the monsoon trough. Combined seas are generally 5-7 ft based on recent altimeter data, peaking at 8-9 ft within the fresh flow. A broad area of fresh to locally strong monsoonal flow prevails south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 125W, with seas generally 6-9 ft in this region. Decaying, long-period S to SW swell lingers across the waters E of 120W, with 7-8 ft combined seas south of the equator. New southerly swell may move across the southern waters during the early to middle parts of next week. $$ AL