000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102114 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2052 UTC Thu Sep 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1010 mb low is centered along the monsoon trough near 13N103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 17N between 103W and 110W, also in association with the tropical wave near 107W. A scatterometer pass earlier today showed a very broad cyclonic circulation with peak winds around 20 kt in the SW quadrant 100 to 200 NM from the center. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt away from the coast of Mexico. The system has a medium chance of developing over the next two days. For more information, see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at https://hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 81W, north of 03N into Central America, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted in association with this wave. A tropical wave axis is near 107W, from 04N to 18N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 17N between 103W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 08N78W to to low pressure near 13N103W, to another low pressure near 19N115W, to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 09N between 95W and 100W and from 18N to 20N between 114W to 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Feature discussion of low at 13N103W. A stationary front extending across the N Gulf of California will weaken tonight. Generally tranquil conditions are expected for the next several days. However, if the low at 13N103W does develop forecast winds and waves will need to be substantially increased along the Mexican offshore zones. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Tranquil conditions should prevail for the next several days with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough along 10N, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough. No significant long-period swell is expected to impact these waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure is centered near 19N115W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 18N to 20N between 114W to 118W. A scatterometer pass indicated a small cyclonic circulation with maximum winds of 20-25 kt in the W semicircle. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days before it interacts with, and possibly becomes absorbed by, a larger weather disturbance to its east discussed in the Special Feature section. High pressure dominates the waters north of 20N, west of 120W. Gentle to moderate NE trades continue north of the monsoon trough axis with seas 5-7 feet. Moderate to fresh S flow persists south of the trough with 5-7 ft seas. Long-period SW swell is present east of 120W, contributing to total seas of 6-8 feet near the equator. Seas will slightly subside through Fri through Tue. $$ Landsea