000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102101 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2052 UTC Thu Sep 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1010 mb low is centered along the monsoon trough near 13N103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 17N between 103W and 110W, also in association with the tropical wave near 107W. A scatterometer pass earlier today showed a very broad cyclonic circulation with peak winds around 20 kt in the SW quadrant 100 to 200 NM from the center. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt away from the coast of Mexico. The system has a medium chance of developing over the next two days. For more information, see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at https://hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 81W, north of 03N into Central America, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted in association with this wave. A tropical wave axis is near 107W, from 04N to 18N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 17N between 103W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to to low pressure near 12N101W, to another low pressure near 19N114W, to 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 08N between 93W and 97W and from 18N to 20N between 113W to 117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See discussion of tropical wave near 107W. A stationary front extending across the northern Gulf of California will weaken later today. A weak trough will linger west of Baja California today. Generally tranquil conditions are expected for the next several days. However, if the tropical wave near 107W does develop forecast winds and waves will need to be substantially increased along the Mexican offshore zones. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Tranquil conditions should prevail for the next several days with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough along 10N, and gentle to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough. No significant long-period swell is expected to impact these waters during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure is centered near 19N114W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 18N to 20N between 113W to 117W. Satellite imagery indicates a small elongated cyclonic circulation with this low. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for additional development of this system during the next several days while it moves slowly westward. High pressure dominates the waters north of 20N, west of 120W. Gentle to moderate trade winds continue north of the monsoon trough axis. Moderate to fresh southerly flow persists south of the trough, with isolated areas of 7 to 8 ft seas. Long-period southerly swell is present east of 120W, reaching the offshore forecast waters of Central America with seas in the 5 to 6 ft range. Seas will slightly subside through Fri. $$ Landsea