000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100911
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Sep 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 84W, north of 03N into Central 
America, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 08N to 12N between 82W and 88W.

A tropical wave axis is along 106W, from 02N to 18N, moving west 
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 08N to 16N between 104W and 112W. Gradual development 
of this system is possible this weekend and into early next week 
while it moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 
18N108W to low pressure near 19N114.5W, to 11N130W to 13N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N 
to 17N between 93W and 103W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 90 nm either side of the trough between 127W and 136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is across the northern Gulf of California, 
from southern Arizona to 29N114W and over northern Baja 
California to 32N117W. Northerly winds behind the front will 
diminish later today, with seas subsiding as a tight pressure 
gradient in the Great Basin area begins to relax. A weak trough 
will linger west of Baja California today.

Mainly light to gentle west to northwest winds will continue 
through the end of the week across the offshore waters west of 
Baja California. Seas will subside slightly today, then change 
little through Fri night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon 
trough axis through the weekend, while light to gentle winds are 
expected north of it. The trough is expected to meander west of 
Nicaragua the next few days. Seas will be in the 5-7 ft range in 
long-period south to southwest swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure is centered near 19N114.5W. Satellite imagery 
indicates a small elongated cyclonic circulation with this low, 
with scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 90 nm 
of the low. Environmental conditions are expected to be only 
marginally conducive for development of this system during the 
next several days, with a low chance of tropical cyclone 
formation through the weekend, as it moves slowly westward. 

High pressure dominates the waters north of 20N, west of 120W. 
Gentle to moderate trade winds continue north of the monsoon 
trough axis. Moderate to fresh southerly flow persists south of 
the trough, with isolated areas of 7 to 8 ft seas. Long-period 
southerly swell is present east of 120W, reaching the offshore 
forecast waters of Central America with seas in the 5 to 6 ft 
range. Seas will slightly subside through Fri.

$$
Mundell