000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100310 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Sep 10 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 82W/83W, north of 03N into Central America, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 81W and 87W. A tropical wave axis is along 105W, from 02N to 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 102W and 111W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends westward from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 10N95W to 14N103W, then resumes from low pressure near 19N114.5W to 11N127W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm either side of the trough between 123W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A stationary front is across the northern Gulf of California, from southern Arizona to 29N114W and over northern Baja California to 32N117W. Fresh northerly winds behind the front will diminish overnight, with seas subsiding to 3-4 ft as a tight pressure gradient in the Great Basin area begins to relax. Mainly light to gentle west to northwest winds will continue through the end of the week across the offshore waters west of Baja California. Seas of 4-6 ft will subside slightly on Thu, then change little through Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough axis through the weekend, while light to gentle winds are expected north of it. The trough is expected to meander west of Nicaragua the next few days. Seas will be in the 5-7 ft range in long-period south to southwest swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure of 1007 mb is centered near 19N114.55W. Satellite imagery indicates a small elongated cyclonic circulation with this low, with minimal convection within 90 nm of the low. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development of this system during the next several days, with a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the weekend, as it moves slowly westward. High pressure dominates the waters north of 20N, west of 120W. Gentle to moderate trade winds continue north of the monsoon trough axis. Moderate to fresh southerly flow persists south of the trough, with isolated areas of 7-8 ft seas. Long-period southerly swell is is present E of 120W, reaching the offshore forecast waters of Central America with seas in the 5 to 6 ft range. Seas will slightly subside through Fri. $$ Mundell