000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092226 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2226 UTC Wed Sep 9 2020 Updated Offshore Waters within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern part of the axis of a western Caribbean Sea along 81W reaches south to near 03N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the northern and central sections of Panama. Similar convection is developing over southern Panama. A tropical wave has its axis along 103W from 04N to 18N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of a northwest to southeast oriented line that extends from 12N101W to 14N104W to 16N105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Colombia near 11N74W to across the Honduras/Nicaragua border, then continues west-northwestward to 13N95W and to 14N101W to 19N109W to low pressure near 19N115W 1007 mb and southwestward to 14N120W to 12N128W and to west of the area at 13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 118W-124W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 124W-128W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 128W-132W, within 60 nm north of trough between 91W-92W and also between 135W-139W, and within 30 nm south of the trough between 132W-134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Updated Satellite imagery shows a large area of disturbed weather that extends from near the coast of southern Mexico to well offshore that coast. The area consists of the tropical wave that is along 103W as described above. In addition, the imagery also shows scattered moderate convection from 13N to 16N between 93W-99W. This area has potential for some gradual development through early next week while it moves slowly west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. Otherwise, a cold front has dipped down to over the northern Gulf of California. It extends from southeastern Arizona to 30N113W and over the northern Baja California near 30N114W, where it turns northwestward as a stationary front to just inland the coast of Southern California. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are behind the front north of 30N as were indicated by the 17Z ASCAT pass. These winds have build seas to around 7 ft in the northern Gulf of California. Winds will diminish and seas subside this afternoon as a very tight gradient over the Great Basin area begins to relax. Mainly light to gentle west to northwest winds will continue through the end of the week across the offshore waters west of Baja California. Seas of 4-6 ft there will subside slightly on Thu and change little through Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough axis through the weekend, while light and variable winds are expected north of it. The trough is expected to meander west of Nicaragua for the next few days. Seas will be in the 5-7 ft range in long-period south to southwest swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure of 1007 mb is centered near 19N115W. This low is along the monsoon trough as described above. Visible satellite images indicate a small and rather elongated cyclonic circulation associated with this low. The imagery also depicts scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 90 nm of the low in the SW quadrant and 30 nm of the low in the NE quadrant. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development of this system during the next several days, with a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 5 days while it moves slowly westward. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the waters north of 20N, west of 120W. Gentle to moderate trade winds continue north of the monsoon trough axis. Moderate to fresh southerly flow persists south of the trough, with isolated areas of 7-8 ft seas. Long- period southerly swell is spreading northward across the region E of 120W, reaching the offshore forecast waters of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Seas will slightly subside through Fri. $$ Aguirre