000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090919 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Sep 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends from 02N100W to 17N103W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 99W and 104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N92W to 11N96W to 12N102W, then resumes from low pressure near 19N114W to 13N122W to 13N134W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 85W and 92W, and from 10N to 15N between 104W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 117W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Satellite imagery and scatterometer data show a well defined cyclonic circulation near 19N114W. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development of this system during the next several days while it moves slowly westward. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. A cold front extends into the northern Gulf of California, with a 1003 mb low evident from scatterometer near 31N114W. The low and front supports fresh to strong winds N of 29N based on the scatterometer data. Winds will shift to the NW this morning as high pressure settles over the Great Basin area. These northerly winds will build seas briefly to 7-8 ft N of 29N this morning. Mainly light to gentle W-NW winds and 4-6 ft seas will prevail across the offshore waters west of Baja California through mid- week as a broad cyclonic circulation dominates the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough axis through the weekend, while light and variable winds are expected north of it. The trough is expected to meander west of Nicaragua for the next few days. Seas will be in the 5 to 7 ft range in long-period southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of 20N, west of 120W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail north of the monsoon trough axis. Moderate to fresh southerly flow persists south of the trough, with isolated areas of 7-8 ft seas. Long-period southerly swell is spreading northward across the region E of 120W, reaching the offshore forecast waters of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Seas will slightly subside through Fri. $$ Mundell