000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090315 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Sep 9 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 101W/102W from 02N to 16N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 100W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N92W to 11N96W to 12N102W, then resumes from low pressure near 20N114.5W to 13N122W to 13N134W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 80W and 86W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 103W and 112W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 116W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Satellite imagery and scatterometer data show a well defined cyclonic circulation near 20N114.5W. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development of this system during the next several days while it moves slowly westward. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. A trough extending into the northern Gulf of California from a low pressure center near the border of southern California and Arizona supports fresh to strong S to SW winds N of 28N based on scatterometer data. These winds will shift to the NW tonight and Wed as a strong high pressure settles over the Great Basin area. These northerly winds will become 20-30 kt, with seas expected to briefly build to 7-8 ft N of 29N early Wed. Mainly light to gentle W-NW winds and 4-6 ft seas will prevail across the offshore waters west of Baja California through mid- week as a broad cyclonic circulation dominates the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the weekend, while light and variable winds are expected north of it. The trough is expected to meander offshore of NW Nicaragua for the next few days. Seas will be in the 5 to 7 ft range in long-period southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters north of 20N, west of 120W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail north of the monsoon trough axis. Moderate to fresh southerly flow persists south of the trough, with isolated areas of 7-8 ft seas. Long-period southerly swell is spreading northward across the region E of 120W, reaching the offshore forecast waters of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Seas will slightly subside through Fri. $$ Mundell