000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081614 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1600 UTC Tue Sep 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1430 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is entering Central America along 84-85W N of 03N moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring mainly behind the wave, near the monsoon trough, from 04N to 09N between 78W and 82W. A tropical wave is along 103W N of 03N into central Mexico, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 97W and 102W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is inland near the northern end of the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 140W from 03N to 18N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N W of 136W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N74W TO 09N82W TO 14N97W TO 11N101W, then resumes from 1008 mb low pressure near 18.5N114W to 12N137W. The ITCZ continues from 12N137W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 94W and 97W. Similar convection is from 12N to 14N between 118W and 126W, and within 60 nm of 18N117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Former T.S. Julio has been absorbed by a large surface low located to the south of the cyclone. Currently, the surface low of 1008 mb is analyzed near 18.4N114W. Overnight satellite- derived wind data show a very well defined cyclonic circulation near and to the E of Clarion Island. Gentle to moderate winds are associated with this system. In addition, this low has been producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 16N to 19N between 115W and 118.5W during the past few hours. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some development during the next few days while the low moves slowly westward. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico was supporting a weak northerly gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. The ridge has weakened and now mainly moderate northerly winds are noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The forecast calls for light and variable winds in this area over the next several days. As is normal for this time of the year, mainly SE to S winds prevail across the Gulf of California. A trough extend across the far northern part of the Gulf from a 994 mb low pressure center along the border of southern California and Arizona, and supports fresh to strong S-SE winds N of 28N based on overnight scatterometer data. These winds will persist through Tue, then veer to the NW Tue night and Wed as a strong high pressure settles over the Great Basin area. These northerly winds will build 20-25 kt with seas expected to briefly build to 6-8 ft N of 29N on Wed. Mainly light to gentle W to NW winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range will prevail across the offshore waters W of Baja California through mid-week as a broad cyclonic circulation dominates the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough through the forecast period while light and variable winds are expected N of it. Seas, over the offshore forecast waters, will be in the 5 to 7 ft range in long-period southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southerly flow persists south of the monsoon trough, with areas of 7 to 8 ft seas. Long-period southerly swell is spreading northward across the region E of 120W, reaching the offshore forecast waters of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Seas will slightly subside toward the end of the work-week. $$ Stripling