000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080907 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 606 UTC Tue Sep 8 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 100W N of 03N into central Mexico, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 97W and 102W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is inland near the northern end of the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 139W from 03N to 18N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N W of 136W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 14N91W to 15N100W to 1008 mb low pressure near 18N114W to 11N130W. The ITCZ continues from 11N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 94W and 97W. Part of this convective activity is affecting the Tehuantepec region. Similar convection is from 12N to 14N between 118W and 126W, and within 15 nm of 18N117W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Former T.S. Julio was absorbed by a large surface low located to the south of the cyclone. Currently, the surface low of 1008 mb is analyzed near 18N114W. Recent satellite-derived wind data show a very well defined cyclonic circulation near and to the E of Clarion Island. Gentle to moderate winds are associated with this system. In addition, this low has been producing limited shower activity during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some development during the next few days while the low moves slowly westward. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days. A ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico was supporting a weak gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region. The ridge has weakened and now mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds are noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The forecast calls for light and variable winds in this area over the next several days. As it is normal for this time of the year, mainly SE to S winds will prevail across the Gulf of California. A 1003 mb low pressure over the far northern part of the Gulf supports fresh to strong SE winds N of 28N based on scatterometer data. These winds will persist through Tue, then veer to the NW Tue night and Wed as a strong high pressure settles over the Great Basin area. Seas are expected to briefly build to 6-8 ft N of 30N on Wed. Mainly light to gentle W to NW winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range will prevail across the offshore waters W of Baja California through mid-week as a broad cyclonic circulation dominates the region. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough through the forecast period while light and variable winds are expected N of it. Seas, over the offshore forecast waters, will be in the 5 to 7 ft range in long-period southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southerly flow persists south of the monsoon trough, with areas of 7 to 8 ft seas. Long-period southerly swell is spreading northward across the region E of 120W, reaching the offshore forecast waters of Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Seas will slightly subside toward the end of the work-week. $$ GR