000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061501 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1500 UTC Sun Sep 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Julio is centered near 19.2N 108.8W at 06/1500 UTC moving WNW at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 120 nm SW semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 12N to 20N between 105W and 115W. The current forecast is for Julio to intensify slightly today, then start a weakening trend Tuesday before dissipating Wednesday. The forecast track keeps Julio away from the coast of Mexico, but the cyclone will remain over the offshore forecast waters until dissipation occurs Wed morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 91W north of 01N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N within 60 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave axis is near 126W from 01N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 123W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 15N102W, then resumes W of T.S. Julio at 16N111W to 10N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted E of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 08N between 90W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 115W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features above for information on T.S. Julio. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between high pressure across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong northerly gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Monday with seas building to 8 ft. As it is normal for this time of the year, mainly SE to S winds will prevail across the Gulf of California. A very tight pressure gradient across the Great Basin of the United States will bring fresh to locally strong southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Mon through Tue night. On Wed, winds are forecast to veer to the NW likely increasing to 25-30 kt as a strong high pressure center settles over the Great Basin area. Seas are expected to build to 6-8 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds W to NW and seas in the 4-6 ft range are expect across the offshore waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in long-period southerly swell. Moderate to fresh SW winds and southerly cross-equatorial swell will persist south of the monsoon trough the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southerly flow persists south of the monsoon trough, with areas of 7 to 8 ft seas. Long-period southerly swell is spreading northward across the region E of 120W, with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range. This swell event will gradually subside early this week. $$ AL