000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060916 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 717 UTC Sun Sep 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Julio is centered near 17.6N 106.0W at 06/0900 UTC moving WNW at 16 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with some decrease in forward speed. A turn to the west is forecast to occur in a couple of days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Most of the deep convection associated with Julio is on the west side of the cyclone due to easterly wind shear. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm W and 30 nm E semicircles of center. Some slight strengthening is possible through tonight. Weakening should begin by Monday and Julio is forecast to dissipate within 72 hours. The forecast track keeps Julio away from the coast of Mexico, but the cyclone will remain over the offshore forecast waters until dissipation occurs by Wed morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 92W north of 01N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 93W and 97W. The wave could be enhancing convection over southern Mexico. A tropical wave axis is near 127W from 01N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 08N to 10N between 123W and 127W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 11N92W to 13N100W, then resumes W of T.S. Julio at 13N107W to 10N120W to 10N135W. The ITCZ continues from 10N135W to 10N140W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 05N E of 79W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 07N E of 78W to the coast of Colombia, from 08N to 10N between 112W and 127W, and from 11N to 15N W of 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features above for information on T.S. Julio. Elsewhere, high pressure building across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico will tighten the pressure gradient between the ridge and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. This will support fresh to strong northerly gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Monday with seas building to 8 ft. As it is normal for this time of the year, mainly SE to S winds will prevail across the Gulf of California. A very tight pressure gradient across the Great Basin of the United States will bring fresh to locally strong southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Mon through Tue night. On Wed, winds are forecast to veer to the NW likely increasing to 25-30 kt as a strong high pressure center settles over the Great Basin area. Seas are expected to build to 6-8 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds W to NW and seas in the 4-6 ft range are expect across the offshore waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in long-period southerly swell. Moderate to fresh SW winds and southerly cross-equatorial swell will persist south of the monsoon trough the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southerly flow persists south of the monsoon trough, with areas of 7 to 8 ft seas. Long-period southerly swell is spreading northward across the region E of 120W, with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range. This swell event will gradually subside early this week. $$ GR