000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060313 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 216 UTC Sun Sep 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Julio is centered near 16.6N 104.2W at 06/0300 UTC moving WNW at 15 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with some decrease in forward speed. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm W and 30 nm E semicircles of center. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two. Weakening should begin by early next week and Julio is forecast to dissipate within 72 hours. The forecast track keeps Julio over the offshore forecast waters until dissipation occurs by Tue evening. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 90W/91W north of 01N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 91W and 95W. The wave appears to enhance convection over SE Mexico. A tropical wave axis is near 123W/124W from 01N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N91W to 13N100W, then resumes W of T.S. Julio at 14N106W to 09N125W to 10N135W. The ITCZ continues from 10N135W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 104W and 116W, and from 06N to 13N W of 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features above for information on T.S. Julio. Elsewhere, high pressure building across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental this weekend will tighten the pressure gradient between the ridge and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. This will support fresh to strong northerly gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Monday with seas building to 8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the waters north of 20N with 5 to 6 ft seas west of the Baja California peninsula. Little change in marine conditions is expected during the next few days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in long-period southerly swell. Moderate to fresh SW winds and southerly cross-equatorial swell will persist south of the monsoon trough the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southerly flow persists south of the monsoon trough, with areas of 7 to 8 ft seas. Long-period southerly swell is spreading northward across the region E of 120W, with seas in the 7 to 9 ft range. This swell event will gradually subside through early next week. $$ GR