000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022016 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2015 UTC Wed Sep 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 110W south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N within 120 nm east of the wave axis. A tropical wave axis is along 125W south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 07N84W to 12N108W to 11N116W, then continues from 14N122W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 79W and 81W, within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 104W and 106W, and within 120 nm of the monsoon trough west of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure is building well offshore of Baja California this afternoon, with gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas noted in recent scatterometer and altimeter data across the adjacent waters. Gentle to moderate winds are occurring over the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, light and variable winds prevail offshore of west-central and southern Mexico under a weak pressure pattern. Little change in marine conditions is expected during the next few days. Offshore high pressure will shift westward over the next several days, supporting gentle to moderate winds west of Baja California. A weak trough or low pressure will pass westward near the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri and Fri night, followed by fresh to strong northerly gap winds pulsing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail S of 05N and W of 90W, based on earlier scatterometer data. A recent altimeter pass indicates seas are 7-9 ft south of the equator between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, likely in long-period southerly swell. Elsewhere, seas are generally 5-7 ft within the monsoonal flow. Winds remain light to gentle near the coast of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, with seas ranging from 3-6 ft. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms continue roughly along 80W from the Gulf of Panama region southward. Moderate to occasionally fresh monsoonal flow will persist south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Southerly, cross-equatorial swell will increase wave heights east of 90W into the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak high pressure is building over the waters W of 120W this afternoon, as supported by the anticyclonic flow noted in recent scatterometer data between 120W-130W. Light to gentle winds prevail N of 20N, with some moderate NE winds closer to the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh southerly flow persists south of the monsoon trough, generally E of 130W. Wave heights remain 5-7 ft in this area, with isolated maxes to 8 ft within the fresh flow. Long-period, southerly swell is spreading northward across the region E of 120W, with several altimeter passes supporting 7-9 ft seas south of the equator. This swell will continue propagating northward over the next couple days. Looking ahead, a larger set of southerly swell will build seas over the southern waters W of 100W this weekend. $$ B Reinhart