000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021517
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1515 UTC Wed Sep 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 108W south of 18N, moving westward 
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to
14N within 90 nm of the wave axis. 

A tropical wave axis is along 122W south of 19N, moving westward 
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N
within 120 nm west of the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 08N90W to 12N103W to 
09N119W, then continues from 15N119W to 13N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted N of 03N E of 80W, within 90 nm of
the monsoon trough between 110W and 117W, and within 120 nm of
the monsoon trough between 123W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern persists across the region this morning.
Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are noted over the
northern Gulf of California, near a surface trough that extends
along the Gulf of California. Gentle to occasionally moderate
winds prevail across the Baja California offshore waters. Light
to gentle winds are offshore of southern Mexico, where a couple 
of overnight altimeter passes indicate seas are 4-6 ft.

Little change in marine conditions is expected during the next 
few days. Weak high pressure will build well offshore of Baja 
California, supporting gentle to moderate winds west of Baja 
California. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds may pulse across 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region this weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to occasionally fresh S to SW winds prevail south of the
monsoon trough that extends along 08N-09N across Costa Rica and
the adjacent offshore waters. North of the trough, winds remain
light to gentle near the coast of Guatemala, El Salvador, and
Nicaragua. Long-period, southerly swell is supporting 6-8 ft seas
near the Galapagos Islands eastward towards Ecuador. Elsewhere,
seas remain 4-7 ft within the monsoonal flow. Scattered 
thunderstorms are ongoing near the Gulf of Panama region and 
offshore of Colombia. 

Moderate to occasionally fresh monsoonal flow will persist south
of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Southerly, 
cross-equatorial swell will increase wave heights east of 90W 
through Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak pressure gradient persists north of the monsoon trough, 
resulting in mainly light to gentle winds north of 20N. The
northerly swell has subsided across the far NW waters, and wave
heights have fallen below 8 ft based on recent altimeter data.  
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly flow continues
south of the monsoon trough, generally E of 125W. Seas are 5-7 ft
within the monsoonal flow, with isolated peaks to 8 ft. Farther
south, long-period southerly swell is supporting 7-8 ft seas
south of the equator. This swell will continue propagating
northward over the next several days. Looking ahead, a larger set
of southerly swell will build seas over the southern waters W of
100W this weekend.

$$
B Reinhart