000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011520 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1520 UTC Tue Sep 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends along 101W south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. A tropical wave axis extends along 115W south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 08N82W to 11N90W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N111W to 09N116W, then continues from 19N117W to 1011 mb low pressure near 13N129W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm S of the monsoon trough E of 83W, and within 180 nm N of the monsoon trough between 88W and 91W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern prevails across the offshore waters this morning. A low pressure trough is analyzed along the Gulf of California, and moderate to locally fresh winds are likely occurring N of 29.5N over the far northern Gulf. Elsewhere, the weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle winds across the offshore waters. Recent altimeter data shows 4-6 ft seas offshore of Baja California Sur. Little change in marine conditions is expected over the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will continue over the northern Gulf of California into tonight. Gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail offshore of the Baja peninsula through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in satellite imagery and lightning data this morning offshore of Panama and Colombia. Another area of convection is observed north of the monsoon trough, near the coast of El Salvador and Guatemala. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough, with 4-7 ft seas across much of the area. A recent altimeter pass indicates seas peak around 8 ft in southerly swell over the far southern waters, near the Gulf of Guayaquil. Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will briefly freshen later this week offshore of Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador. Southerly swell will result in 8 ft or greater seas between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador through Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A low pressure trough that extends from 1010 mb low pressure near 34N126W to 27N131W has weakened the eastern Pacific ridge. As a result, mainly gentle winds prevail across the waters N of 20N W of 120W, with moderate winds noted closer to the monsoon trough. Northerly swell maintains seas to 8 ft over the far northern waters W of 130W. Elsewhere, a larger area of moderate to locally fresh southerly flow is occurring south of the monsoon trough between 90W and 120W. Overnight altimeter data indicates 7-8 ft seas persist south of the equator, as southerly swell continues propagating northward across the region. Seas will subside across the far northern waters by tonight. Southerly swell will maintain 8 ft seas in the waters south of the equator through the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, a broad area of low pressure near 10N111W is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This system remains disorganized, and environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for any further development by Thu while the low moves slowly westward. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more updates. $$ B Reinhart