000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010309 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 309 UTC Tue Sep 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A tropical wave axis extends along 99W and from 05N to 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 98W and 101W. A tropical wave axis extends along 112W from 05N to 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 110W and 113W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N98W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N110W to 16N120W to 1010 mb low pressure near 14N129W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm south of the boundary between 93W and 115W, and within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnants of Iselle were analyzed as a 1007 mb surface low centered near 26N113W. No convection is related to this low. Gentle to moderate winds are noted in a recent scatterometer pass near the low. This feature will likely open up into a surface trough by Tue. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds persist across the offshore waters under a weak pressure gradient. Seas remain in the 4-6 ft range offshore of the Baja California peninsula, per a recent altimeter pass. Little change in marine conditions is expected in this area over the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow is expected to develop over the northern Gulf of California tonight and continue through Tue. Gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail offshore of the Baja peninsula through this week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly gap winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region Fri night and Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent GOES-16 satellite imagery and lightning data show no significant convection over the offshore waters. Earlier scatterometer data indicated gentle to moderate winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds north of the trough near the coast of Central America. Seas are generally 4-7 ft across the region, highest over the southern waters. Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will briefly freshen later this week offshore of Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador. Southerly swell will result in 8 ft or greater seas between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador tonight through Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak high pressure ridge across the waters north of 20N is supporting gentle to moderate trades west of 130W, with fresh winds closer to 140W where seas peak around 8 ft based on a recent altimeter pass. Stronger winds well north of 30N are generating northerly swell that is producing 8 ft seas across the far northern waters roughly between 125W and 135W. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds are noted south of the monsoon trough, except for moderate to locally fresh winds depicted in scatterometer data between 90W and 105W. Northerly swell will support 8 ft seas across the far northern waters west of 130W through Tue. A broad area of low pressure centered near 10N110W continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. By mid-week, however, environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a low chance during the next five days. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more updates. $$ ERA