000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312042 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2040 UTC Mon Aug 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends along 97W south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave axis extends along 111W south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 107W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 07N82W to 13N89W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N97W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N110W to 16N117W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm of the monsoon trough between 100W and 105W, and within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 118W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant 1009 mb low of Iselle is centered near 25N113W based on recent scatterometer data. Associated winds remain gentle to moderate, and there is no convection associated with the low. This feature will likely open up into a surface trough by Tue. Otherwise, light to gentle winds persist across the offshore waters under a weak pressure gradient. Seas remain in the 4-6 ft range offshore of the Baja California peninsula, per a recent altimeter pass. Little change in marine conditions is expected in this area over the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow is expected to develop over the northern Gulf of California tonight and continue through Tue. Gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail offshore of the Baja peninsula through this week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly gap winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region Fri night and Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent GOES-16 satellite imagery and lightning data show no significant convection over the offshore waters this afternoon. Earlier scatterometer data indicated gentle to moderate winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds north of the trough near the coast of Central America. Seas are generally 4-7 ft across the region, highest over the southern waters. Gentle to moderate monsoonal flow will briefly freshen later this week offshore of Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador. Southerly swell will result in 8 ft or greater seas between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador tonight through Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak high pressure ridge across the waters north of 20N is supporting gentle to moderate trades west of 130W, with fresh winds closer to 140W where seas peak around 8 ft based on a recent altimeter pass. Stronger winds well north of 30N are generating northerly swell that is producing 8 ft seas across the far northern waters roughly between 125W and 135W. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds are noted south of the monsoon trough, except for moderate to locally fresh winds depicted in scatterometer data between 90W and 105W. Northerly swell will support 8 ft seas across the far northern waters west of 127W through Tue. A broad area of low pressure centered near 10N110W continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. By mid-week, however, environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a low chance during the next five days. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more updates. $$ B Reinhart