000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1543 UTC Sat Aug 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Iselle is centered near 20.3N 114.7W at 29/1500 UTC moving NNE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 17N to 21N between 114W and 118W. A turn toward the north is expected later today with this motion expected to continue for another day or so. This should be followed by a turn to the northwest. Weakening is forecast, and Iselle is expected to become a tropical depression tonight or Sunday morning. The depression should then degenerate into a remnant low later Sunday or Sunday night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends N of 10N with axis near 98W, moving westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 17N between 96W and 106W. A tropical wave extends N of 04N with axis near 83W, moving west at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 03N E of 85W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough emerges off of Central America near 11N86W to 17N102W, then resumes west of T.S. Iselle near 15N120W and continues to 12N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 45 nm N and 210 nm south of the boundary as well as from 08N to 14N between 85W and 91W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Iselle. Elsewhere, a 1027 mb high prevails well north of the forecast waters NW of Baja California. Fresh to strong SE winds in the northern Gulf of California will diminish tonight. Seas should peak near 7 ft. Elsewhere, tranquil weather conditions will likely return across the offshore waters from Mon through at least Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In general, quiescent conditions should prevail for the next several days. North of the monsoon trough from 08-10N, light to moderate winds will prevail, while moderate to fresh S winds are expected south of the monsoon trough. A moderate S swell event should impact the equatorial zones by mid-week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1027 mb high well north of the forecast waters NW of Baja California extends a ridge across the waters N of 20N. The weak pressure gradient between the high and the monsoon trough to the south is promoting moderate to fresh NE trades. Moderate to fresh S winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough. The exception is SW moderate winds between 12N- 18N between 110W and 120W southeast of Tropical Storm Iselle. These enhanced monsoonal SW winds should diminish today. A N swell event will cross the 30N border near 130W boosting combined seas to 8-9 ft Sun night through Tue night. A S swell event should cross our 03.4S border east of 120W on Tue and Wed increasing seas to 8 ft. $$ Ramos