000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261541 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Aug 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Thirteen-E is centered near 17.3N 106.1W at 26/1500 UTC moving ENE at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the SW semicircle. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday, then weaken back to a tropical depression on Friday. The depression is temporarily drifting toward the ENE, and a turn toward the NNE is forecast later today. A turn toward the NNW is expected on Thursday followed by a turn toward the WNW on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone, along with the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is centered near 15.4N 117.2W at 26/1500 UTC moving NE at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the SW semicircle. Some strengthening is expected and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm Thursday. The depression is moving slowly toward the NE and this general motion is forecast to continue through Friday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. A very active and strong monsoon trough extends across southern Mexico and Central America. Very heavy rainfall will continue through the week across these areas with the heaviest amounts expected across southern Mexico. This rainfall may cause dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, and river flooding. Refer to information issued by your local or national meteorological agency for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 95W, moving westward at around 20 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea to across Nicaragua from near 12N84W to the Gulf of Fonseca near 13N88W to the vicinity of Tropical Depression Thirteen-E to the vicinity of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E to 12N130W to 11N140W. Other than the convection associated with the two tropical depressions, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm S-SW of the monsoon trough between 84W and 106W, from 15N to 19N between 111W and 117W, from 07N to 10N between 126W and 138W, and from 10N to 12N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, Tropical Depression Fourteen-E and a very heavy rainfall event over southern Mexico. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails over the waters W of Baja California. More tranquil weather conditions will likely return by the end of the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for details on a very heavy rainfall event over Central America. Moderate to fresh SW-W winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds will prevail S of Costa Rica and Panama through the next several days. Long-period S-SW swell will propagate into the waters offshore of Ecuador by early Thu with seas building to 7-9 ft. These seas will decay by the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E. Elsewhere, a weak cold front has slipped just E-SE of 30N140W. This front will stall out and dissipate during the next day or so. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N. Low pressure at 1008 mb is centered just W of the area near 12N140.5W. Associated winds and seas are confined to W of 140W. Elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Fresh to locally strong SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough between 95W and 120W. No significant wind or swell events are anticipated through Sun, with the potential for a northerly swell event with seas of 8 ft or greater reaching S of 30N by Sun night into early next week. $$ Lewitsky