000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260911 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0900 UTC Wed Aug 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently developed Tropical Depression Thirteen-E is centered near 17.5N 106.7W at 26/0900 UTC moving NNE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm SW semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 13N to 19N between 106W and 111W. TD Thirteen-E is forecast to track northward today, then start on a NNW track. The system is forecast to reach tropical storm intensity tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. A 1004 mb low pressure system is located several hundred miles SW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 15.5N117W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 120 nm SW semicircle of the low. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 13N to 16N between 116W and 122W. Overnight ASCAT pass indicates a well defined circulation associated with this low, with strong to near gale force winds within 210 nm SE semicircle and fresh to strong winds within 90 nm NW semicircle. This system will likely become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves slowly east- northeastward to northeastward. A gale warning has been issued with current winds of strong to near gale force forecast to reach gale force by late tonight. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on all of these systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 92W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea across Central America to Tropical Depression Thirteen-E near 17.5N 106.7W to low pres near 15.5N117W to 12N140W. The strong monsoon trough has started to break down, with two prominent low pressure areas developing. Please see Special Features section above for more information on these two low pressure areas, TD Thirteen-E and another low pressure area with a high probability of tropical cyclogenesis. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 83W and 101W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on newly developed Tropical Depression 13E, and another low pressure area which has a high probability of developing into a tropical cyclone. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails over the waters W of Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through tonight before diminishing. Long-period S-SW swell will propagate into the waters offshore of Ecuador by early Thu with seas building to 7-9 ft. These seas will decay by the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section for more on an area of low pressure centered near 15.5N117W, which has a high chance for tropical cyclogenesis within the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N. Low pressure is centered just west of the area near 12N140.5W. Overnight ASCAT pass indicated moderate to fresh winds associated to the low from 13N to 20N W of 135W. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Fresh to locally strong SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough between 95W and 120W. $$ AL