000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260250 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0250 UTC Wed Aug 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1004 mb low pressure system is located a few hundred miles S-SE of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 16.5N107.5W. The system continues to show signs of organization. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm in the SW semicircle. This system will likely become a tropical depression or tropical storm during the next day or two while it moves slowly east- northeastward or northeastward, near or just west of the southwestern coast of Mexico. A gale warning has been issued with current winds of fresh to strong forecast to reach gale force by late tonight. Seas of 8-11 ft will build as the winds increase. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a high change of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. A 1004 mb low pressure system is located several hundred miles SW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 15N117.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm in the W semicircle, with scattered moderate convection elsewhere from 13N to 16N between 116W and 123W. Although this system is currently producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity, its circulation has become better defined during the past several hours. Some additional development of the disturbance is expected and it will likely become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves slowly east-northeastward to northeastward. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on all of these systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 91W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea across Central America to low pressure near 15.5N97.5W to low pressure near 16.5N107.5W to low pressure near 15N117.5W to 12.5N140W. The monsoon trough is active, with numerous moderate and isolated strong convection noted N of 05N and E of 87W, N of 09N between 87W and 100W, and from 11N to 18N between 100W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 120W and 140W. As typical with an active monsoon trough, there are several areas of low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough. Three of these areas are being monitored for tropical cyclone potential. Please see Special Features section above for more information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on several areas of disturbed weather along the monsoon trough that may impact the offshore waters of Mexico this week and upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails over the waters W of Baja California. A locally tight pressure gradient will develop tonight into early Wed N of Sebastian Vizcaino Bay, briefly increasing NW-N winds to fresh to strong. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Wed night. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through Wed night before diminishing. Long-period S-SW swell will propagate into the waters offshore of Ecuador by early Thu with seas building to 7-9 ft. These seas will decay by the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N. A cold front analyzed just W-NW of 30N140W will stall through Wed with little impact across the discussion waters. A 1009 mb low pressure area has shifted west of the discussion waters, centered near 12.5N141W. Associated winds and seas have decreased over the discussion waters. Fresh to locally strong SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough between 95W and 120W. $$ AL