000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251509 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Aug 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An active monsoon trough continues to produce a large area of disturbed weather. A broad 1006 mb low pressure system is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, near 16.5N107.5W. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show some signs of organization, and environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next couple of days while the system moves slowly east-northeastward to northeastward toward the southwestern coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a high change of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. A small 1008 mb low pressure system is located just offshore of the south-central Mexico coast near Puerto Angel, near 15.5N97W. The low is forecast to meander or move slowly westward to west- northwestward over or near the southern coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could still form if the system remains offshore over the next day or two. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely in southeastern Mexico and northern Central America during the next several days. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 88W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Central America from 12N87W to low pressure near 15.5N97W to low pressure near 16.5N107.5W to low pressure near 15N117W to 10N130W to low pressure near 13N140W. The monsoon trough is active, with numerous moderate and isolated strong convection noted from 02N to 10N to the E of 85W, from 10N to 16N to the E of 104W, from 11N to 18N between 105W and 113W, from 13N to 17N between 117W and 121W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 124W and 139W. As typical with an active monsoon trough, there are several areas of low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough. Three of these areas are being monitored for tropical cyclone potential. Please see Special Features section above for more information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails over the waters west of Baja California. A locally tight pressure gradient will develop tonight into early Wed N of Sebastian Vizcaino Bay briefly increasing NW-N winds to fresh to strong. Farther south, SW winds have strengthened in association to an active monsoon trough south of southern Mexico. Scattered to numerous convection is along the monsoon trough, which will bring areas of locally stronger winds and rough seas. There will be the potential for two tropical systems to develop over the offshore waters of Mexico this week in association to this active monsoon trough. Please see the Special Features section for details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through mid-week. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through midweek before diminishing. Long-period S-SW swell will propagate into the waters offshore of Ecuador by early Thu with seas building to 7-9 ft. These seas will decay by the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N. A 1008 mb low pressure has moved into the forecast waters and is located near 13N140W. This system is producing an area of fresh to locally strong winds from 15N to 16N W of 139W and seas to 8 ft. The low pressure will move W of the forecast area by tonight, with associated winds and seas decreasing over the discussion waters. Fresh to locally strong SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough between 95W and 120W. $$ Lewitsky