000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250840 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0840 UTC Tue Aug 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An active monsoon trough continues to produce a large area of disturbed weather. A broad low pressure system embedded within the monsoon trough is located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this low are beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next couple of days while the system moves slowly east-northeastward to northeastward toward the southwestern coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a high change of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Another small low pressure system embedded within the monsoon trough has moved inland over south- central Mexico just north of Puerto Angel. The low is forecast to meander or move slowly westward to west- northwestward over or near the southern coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could still form if the system moves back out over the water during the next day or two. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely in southeastern Mexico and northern Central America during the next several days. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 85/86W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 08N between 84W and 90W, including portions of Central America. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Central America from 14N90W to 1008 mb low pressure near 16N96.5W to a 1006 mb low pressure near 16N108.5W to 1008 mb low pressure near 15N117W to 1010 mb low pressure near 14N140W. The monsoon trough is active, with numerous moderate and scattered strong convection from 10N to 17N between 90W and 115W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 115W and 140W. As typical with an active monsoon trough, there are several areas of low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough. Three of these areas are being monitored for tropical cyclone potential. Please see Special Features section above for more information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails over the waters west of Baja California. Farther south, SW winds have strengthened in association to an active monsoon trough south of southern Mexico. Scattered to numerous convection is along the monsoon trough, which will bring areas of locally stronger winds and rough seas. There will be the potential for two tropical systems to develop over the offshore waters of Mexico this week in association to this active monsoon trough. Please see the Special Features section for details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through mid- week. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through midweek before diminishing. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N. A low pressure has moved into the forecast waters and is located near 14N140W. This system is producing an area of fresh to locally strong winds from 12N to 16N W of 136W and seas to 9 ft. The low pressure will move W of the forecast area by tonight, with associated winds and seas decreasing over the discussion waters. Fresh to locally strong SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough between 95W and 120W. $$ AL