000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250241 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 024 UTC Tue Aug 25 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An active monsoon trough continues to produce a large area of disturbed weather several hundred miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression to form from this area of active weather later this week a few hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a high change of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Another area of low pressure within the monsoon trough is located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This low continues to show signs of organization. This low is forecast to meander or move slowly west- northwestward near the southern coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next day or two, assuming the center of circulation remains offshore. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely in southeastern Mexico and northern Central America during the next several days in association with the active monsoon trough and this embedded area of low pressure. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 84W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 04N between 80W and 87W, including portions of Central America. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Central America from 14N90W to 1006 mb low pressure near 15.5N95.5W to a 1006 mb low pressure near 15N108.5W to 1008 mb low pressure near 15N117W to 1010 mb low pressure near 14N139W. The monsoon trough is active, with numerous moderate and scattered strong convection from 10N to 17N between 90W and 125W. As typical with an active monsoon trough, there are several areas of low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough. Two of these areas are being monitored for tropical cyclone potential. Please see Special Features section above for more information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pres prevails over the waters west of Baja California. Farther south, SW winds have strengthened in association to an an active monsoon trough south of southern Mexico. Scattered to numerous convection is along the monsoon trough, which will bring areas of locally stronger winds and choppy seas. There will be the potential for two tropical systems to develop over the offshore waters of Mexico this week in association to this active monsoon trough. Please, see the Special Features section for details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Enhanced monsoon flow will bring the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of Central America this week. This heavy rain could lead to flash flooding, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Over the forecast waters, fresh SW to W winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through mid-week, with building seas of 9 or 10 ft. Fresh to strong SW winds and building seas of 8-10 ft are also expected across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama beginning tomorrow. These marine conditions are forecast to propagate into the Gulf of Panama by Wed, but the highest seas are expected to remain W of 80W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N. A low pressure has moved into the forecast waters and is located near 14N139W. This system is producing an area of fresh to locally strong winds from 12N to 16N W of 136W and seas to 9 ft. The low pressure will remain near 140W before moving W of the forecast area by Tue night. Fresh to locally strong SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough between 92W and 120W. The strongest winds of 25-30 kt are just to the south of the low pressure systems mentioned in the Special Features section. $$ AL