000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242122 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1958 UTC Mon Aug 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An elongated zone of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This weather is expected to consolidate in a couple of days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression to form later this week while the system meanders or drifts northward a few hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a high change of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. The Gale Warning previously associated with this system is not longer in effect. Satellite images and satellite-derived wind data indicate that the small low pressure system located very near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is becoming better organized. This low is forecast to meander or move slowly west-northwestward near the southern coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next day or two, assuming the center of circulation remains offshore. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely in southeastern Mexico and northern Central America during the next several days. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 95W/96W N of 03N. A low pressure of 1007 mb is along the wave axis near 15N. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is N of 14N between 94W and 97W. Part of this convective activity is affecting the western section of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This tropical wave has already spawned Tropical Storm Marco. It also has the potential to help the development of a tropical cyclone south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec within a day or two. Please see special features section above for more details. Another tropical wave is along 83W, crossing near the Panama/Costa Rica border. Scattered moderate convection is noted over western Panama behind the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Central America from 14N92W to 1007 mb low pressure near 15N95.5W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 15N108W to 1008 mb low pressure near 14N117W to 1010 mb low pressure near 14N139W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 92W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is seen N of 04N E of 83W to the coast of Colombia, and within about 120 nm NE quadrant of low located near 14N139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of T.S. Genevieve is centered just N of area near 31N122W. This low is forecast to gradually open up into a trough tonight. High pres will build in the wake of the low. Farther south, monsoon flow has strengthened south of southern Mexico. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong SW winds S of the monsoon trough to about 10N. As previously mentioned, there will be the potential for two tropical systems to develop over the offshore waters of Mexico this week. Please, see the Special Features section for details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Enhanced monsoon flow will bring the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of Central America this week. This heavy rain could lead to flash flooding, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Over the forecast waters, fresh SW to W winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through mid-week, with building seas of 9 or 10 ft. Fresh to strong SW winds and building seas of 8-10 ft are also expected across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama beginning tomorrow. These marine conditions are forecast to propagate into the Gulf of Panama by Wed, but the highest seas are expected to remain W of 80W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N and W of 125W. A low pressure has moved into the forecast waters and is located near 14N139W. This system is producing an area of fresh to locally strong winds from 12N to 16N W of 136W and seas to 8 ft. The low pressure will remain near 140W before moving again W of the forecast area by Tue night. Fresh to locally strong SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough between 92W and 120W. The strongest winds of 25-30 kt are just to the south of the low pressure systems mentioned in the Special Features section. $$ GR