000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241559
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1532 UTC Mon Aug 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An elongated zone of disturbed weather is located several hundred 
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula.  This weather is expected to consolidate in a couple of 
days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical 
depression to form later this week while the system meanders or 
drifts northward a few hundred miles offshore of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states 
that this system has a high change of tropical cyclone formation 
through 48 hours. Currently, a gale warning has been issued in 
association with this system forecast to reach gale force winds 
in 36 hours.

A small low pressure area located a couple of hundred miles southwest
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. Conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system if it does not move inland over Mexico,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple
of days while it moves slowly northwestward, near or parallel to
the southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, areas
of heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely in southeastern 
Mexico and northern Central America during the next several days.
The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high 
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 95W/96W N of 03N. A low pressure of
1007 mb is along the wave axis near 15N. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is N of 12N between 92W and 100W. 
This tropical wave has already spawned Tropical Storm Marco. It 
also has the potential to help the development of a tropical 
cyclone south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec within the next couple
of days. Please see special features section above for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends across northern Central America from 
14N92W to 1007 mb low pressure near 15N95.5W to a 1007 mb low 
pressure near 15N112.5W to 1007 mb low pressure near 13N129W to 
1010 mb low pressure near 13N139W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 92W and 120W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen N of 04N E of 82W to the
coast of Colombia, and from 10N to 12N between 120W and 126W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The remnant low of T.S. Genevieve is centered just N of area 
near 31N122W. This low is forecast to finally dissipate today. 
High pres will build in the wake of the low. Farther south, 
monsoon flow has strengthened south of southern Mexico. As 
previously mentioned, there will be the potential for two 
tropical systems to develop over the offshore waters of Mexico 
this week. Please, see the Special Features section for details.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Enhanced monsoon flow will bring the potential for heavy rainfall
over portions of Central America early this week. This heavy 
rain could lead to flash flooding, especially in areas of 
mountainous terrain. Over the forecast waters, fresh SW to W 
winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador through mid- week, with building seas of up to 10 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N and W of
125W. A low pressure has moved into the forecast waters and is 
located near 13N139W. This system is producing an area of fresh 
to locally strong winds from 12N to 16N W of 136W and seas to 8 
ft. The low pressure will remain near 140W before moving again
westward by Tue night.

Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough across
most of the forecast region. Fresh to strong SW winds are noted 
between 90W and 120W. The strongest winds are just to the south
of the low pressure systems mentioned in the Special Features 
section.

$$
GR