000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240252 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 031 UTC Mon Aug 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Conditions appear favorable for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of days while the system meanders or drifts northward a few hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a high change of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Currently, a gale warning has been issued in association with this system forecast to reach gale force winds in 24 hours. The circulation of a low pressure area located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better defined, but the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently limited. Conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves slowly northwestward, near or parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely in southeastern Mexico and northern Central America during the next several days. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 95/96W N of 03N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is N of 09N between 90W and 100W. This tropical wave has already spawned Hurricane Marco. It also has the potential to help the development of a tropical cyclone south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early this week. Please see special features section above for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N91W to 1007 mb low pressure near 14N95.5W to a 1006 mb low pressure near 14.5N111W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 100W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 10N to 13N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnants of T.S. Genevieve, analyzed as 1010 mb low pressure near 30N123W will dissipate tonight into Mon. High pres will build in the wake of the low. Farther south, monsoon flow has strengthened south of southern Mexico. As previously mentioned, there will be the potential for two tropical systems to develop over the offshore waters of Mexico this week. Please, see the Special Features section for details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Enhanced monsoon flow will bring the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of Central America early this week. This heavy rain could lead to flash flooding, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Over the forecast waters, fresh SW to W winds are expected across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through mid- week, with building seas of up to 10 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N and W of 125W. A low pressure system moving northward just W of the area is producing an area of fresh to locally strong SW winds from 10N to 15N W of 136W. Seas are in the 8 to 9 ft range. The low pressure will remain near 140W through early this week before moving westward. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough across most of the forecast region. Fresh to strong SW winds are noted between 90W and 120W. The strongest winds are just to the south of the low pressure systems mentioned in the Special Features section. $$ AL