000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230252 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0250 UTC Sun Aug 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early- to-middle part of next week while the system drifts a few hundred miles offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a medium change of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance for tropical cyclone formation through the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 91W N of 03N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the wave axis N of 08N between 86W and 91W. This tropical wave has already spawned T.D. Fourteen in the western Caribbean. It also has the potential to help the development of a tropical cyclone south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N90W to 17N110W to 12N140W. Besides the convection described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N east of 84W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 91W and 110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of Genevieve will move NW across the forecast waters west of Baja California Norte through Sun before dissipating. High pres will then build in the wake of the low. Farther south, monsoon flow will strengthen south of southern Mexico this weekend. As previously mentioned, there will be the potential for two tropical systems to develop over the offshore waters of Mexico next week. Please, see the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections for details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... SW monsoon flow will continue to strengthen roughly over the waters N of 10N between 90W and 110W the remainder of the weekend. This enhanced monsoon flow will bring the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of Central America through early next week. This heavy rain could lead to flash flooding, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N and W of 125W. A low pressure system moving northward just W of the area is producing an area of fresh to locally strong SW winds from 09N to 13N W of 137W. Seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. The low pressure will remain near 140W through early Sun, entering the forecast area likely in the afternoon. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough across most of the forecast region. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are noted between 90W and 110W. $$ AL