000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222114 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1922 UTC Sat Aug 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to drift eastward for the next couple of days. Conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week when the system is expected to move slowly off the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a medium change of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 88W N of 03N. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is along the wave axis from 12N to 13N between 87W and 88.5W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 11N to 13N between 87W and 89W. This tropical wave has already spawned T.D. Fourteen in the western Caribbean. It also has the potential to help the development of a tropical cyclone south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days, and it is forecast to moves slowly northwestward or northward, near or parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. A tropical wave axis is analyzed near 115W from 05N to 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 110W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over northern Central America from 14N92W to 13N100W to 16N115W to 1009 mb low pressure near 15N121W to 12N140W. Besides the convection described above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 90W and 104W. Similar convection is also from 10N to 13N between 133W and 136W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed S of the low pressure from 13N to 14.5N between 121W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of Genevieve is still producing fresh winds and seas to 8 ft within about 90 nm in the NE quadrant of the center located near 28N119.5W. These marine conditions are forecast to diminish in about 6 hours. The remnant low will move NW across the forecast waters west of Baja California Norte through Sun before dissipating. High pres will then build in the wake of the low. Farther south, monsoon flow will strengthen south of southern Mexico this weekend. As previously mentioned, there will be the potential for two tropical systems to develop over the offshore waters of Mexico next week. Please, see the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections for details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... SW monsoon flow will continue to strengthen roughly over the waters N of 10N between 90W and 110W the remainder of the weekend. This enhanced monsoon flow will bring the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of Central America through early next week. This heavy rain could lead to flash flooding, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N and W of 125W. A low pressure system moving northward just W of the area is producing an area of fresh to locally strong SW winds from 09N to 11N W of 136W. Seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range based on altimeter data. The low pressure will remain near 140W through early Sun, entering the forecast area likely in the afternoon. Latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh SW winds S of the monsoon trough to about 10N across most of the forecast region. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are noted between 90W and 102W. $$ GR