000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1520 UTC Sat Aug 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move generally eastward for the next couple of days. Conditions appear favorable for gradual development and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week when the system is expected to slow and meander off the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a medium change of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is near 87W N of 03N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 86W and 88W. This tropical wave has already spawned T.D. Fourteen in the western Caribbean. It also has the potential to help the development of a tropical cyclone south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days. A tropical wave axis is analyzed near 115W from 05N to 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 107W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over northern Central America from 14N90W to 13N98W to 14N94W to 16N110W to 11N140W. Besides the convection described above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 90W and 104W. Similar convection is from 12N to 16N between 120W and 127W, and from 08N to 11N W of 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of Genevieve is still producing fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft within about 120 nm in the NE quadrant of the center located near 28N119W. These marine conditions are forecast to diminish in about 6-12 hours. The remnant low will move NW across the forecast waters west of Baja California Norte through Sun before dissipating. High pres will then build in the wake of the low. Farther south, monsoon flow will strengthen south of southern Mexico this weekend. As previously mentioned, there will be the potential for two tropical systems to develop over the offshore waters of Mexico next week. Please, see the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections for details. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... SW monsoon flow will strengthen this weekend over the waters N of 10N. Moderate to fresh monsoon flow will prevail south of 10N. This enhanced monsoon flow will bring the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of Central America this weekend. This heavy rain could lead to flash flooding, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N and W of 125W. A low pressure area moving northward just W of the area will bring some increase in winds and seas across the west- central waters over the next 24-48 hours, particularly from 10N-15N W of 135W. Expect fresh to locally strong S-SW winds and seas in the 8-10 ft range. Fresh to strong SW monsoon flow prevails east of 105W, with moderate to fresh monsoon flow prevailing west of 105W. The strong monsoon flow will expand in coverage over the weekend into early next week. By then, fresh to strong monsoon flow will cover the waters east of 120W. $$ GR