000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220250
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0250 UTC Sat Aug 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0250 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis has been repositioned to near 85W N of 03N.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N E of 94W,
including parts of Central America. This tropical wave has
already spawned TD Fourteen in the western Caribbean. It also 
has the potential to help the development of a tropical cyclone 
in the eastern north Pacific next week. There is a near zero 
chance of tropical cyclogenesis within the next couple of days, 
but a medium chance within the next 5 days. 

A tropical wave axis is analyzed near 113W from 04N to 18N, 
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
10N to 15N between 110W and 120W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 13N88W to 13N97W to 18N108W to 
11N140W. Besides the convection described above, scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N 
between 100W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 07N to 11N between 130W and 140W. 


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The remnants of T.S. Genevieve will move NW across the forecast 
waters west of Baja California Norte through Sun before 
dissipating. High pres will then build in the wake of the low. 
Farther south, monsoon flow will strengthen south of southern 
Mexico this weekend. There will be the potential for two tropical
systems to develop over the offshore waters of Mexico next week.
With the first area, low pressure will develop offshore of SW 
Mexico within a strengthening monsoon trough, with the potential
for tropical cyclone development during the early to middle part
of next week. There is a low probability of tropical cyclone 
development in the next couple of days, with a medium probability
in the next five days. For the second possible system, the 
tropical wave currently moving across Central America will help 
for the development of low pressure south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. This low will also have the potential of tropical 
cyclone development next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

SW monsoon flow will strengthen this weekend over the waters N 
of 10N. Moderate to fresh monsoon flow will prevail south of 10N.
This enhanced monsoon flow will bring the potential for heavy
rainfall over portions of Central America this weekend. This
heavy rain could lead to flash flooding, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters N of 20N and W of
125W. A low pressure area moving northward just W of the area
will bring some increase in winds and seas across the west-
central waters over the next 24-48 hours, particularly from
10N-15N W of 135W. Expect fresh to locally strong S-SW winds and
seas in the 8-10 ft range.

Fresh to strong SW monsoon flow prevails east of 105W, with
moderate to fresh monsoon flow prevailing west of 105W. The
strong monsoon flow will expand in coverage over the weekend into
early next week. By then, fresh to strong monsoon flow will
cover the waters east of 120W. 

$$
AL