000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210305 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0300 UTC Fri Aug 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 24.2N 113.2W at 21/0300 UTC moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 23N to 27N between 111W and 115W. Genevieve will continue weakening as it passes offshore of Baja California, then weaken to a tropical depression by early Sat while moving away from Baja California. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is analyzed near 82W N of 01N. This is the tropical wave which helped spawn TD 14 in the western Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 78W and 87W. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding over portions of Central America through the weekend. A tropical wave axis is analyzed near 105W from 04N to 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 100W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 13N92W to 18N109W to 12N131W to 12N140W. Besides the convection described above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 108W and 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Storm Genevieve. Peak seas are currently around 25 ft west of southern Baja California Sur. Swell associated with Genevieve is producing 8 ft seas in the southern Gulf of California. Genevieve will continue producing dangerous, life- threatening marine conditions over the next few days as it crosses the Baja California offshore waters. Elsewhere, expect fresh to strong S to SE winds in the northern Gulf of California tonight and Fri with seas around 5-7 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Locally fresh SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Associated seas are 6-9 ft. Expect freshening winds and building seas off the coast of Central America through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Seas will build to 8-10 ft offshore of Central America by this weekend in association with the strongest winds, then continue building to 9-12 ft early next week as monsoonal flow continues strengthening. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A modest pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate trades N of 20N and W of 125W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range within these fresh trades. This monsoonal flow is expected to strengthen E of 115W this weekend into early next week, with seas building to 8-12 ft. An area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves little. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. $$ AL