000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200245 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0245 UTC Thu Aug 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 22.0N 110.1W at 20/0300 UTC moving NNW at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm SW and 30 nm NE semicircles. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is noted from 20N to 24N between 107W and 112W. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 180 nm of center except 150 nm SW quadrant with peak seas to 36 ft. Genevieve is expected to turn toward the northwest by early Thu morning, with that motion continuing through Sat. The center of Genevieve is expected to pass just to the southwest and west of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula tonight and Thu, and move away from the peninsula on Fri. Gradual weakening is expected Thu through Fri. However, Genevieve is forecast to remain a hurricane tonight and early Thu while it passes just to the southwest and west of the southern Baja California peninsula. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is analyzed near 102W south of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 98W and 102W. A tropical wave axis is analyzed near 128W south of 20N, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N76W to 1010 mb low pressure near 09N94W to 10N97W, then resumes south of Hurricane Genevieve from 18N110W to 1006 mb low pressure near 15N124W to 11N132W to 11N140W. Besides the convection described above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm S of the monsoon trough between 83W and 87W, within 120 nm S of the monsoon trough between 91W and 94W, from 13N to 18N between 107W and 110W, and from 11N to 14N between 120W and 126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about Hurricane Genevieve. Genevieve will continue producing dangerous, life-threatening marine conditions over the next few days as it crosses the offshore waters of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur. Peak seas are currently analyzed to near 36 ft south of the southern tip of Baja California Sur near 22N110W. Swell associated with Genevieve is producing 8-16 ft seas in the southern Gulf of California. Large seas will continue spreading northward across the Baja California offshore waters into the upcoming weekend as Genevieve moves NW across the region. Indirectly due to Genevieve, expect strengthening S to SE winds in the northern Gulf of California Thu and Fri with seas building to 5-7 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough, which presently extends along 09N-10N, will gradually lift northward over the next several days. This will result in freshening winds and building seas off the coast of Central America through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Seas will build to 8-10 ft offshore of Central America in association with the strongest winds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A modest pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the monsoon trough is supporting generally moderate trades N of 20N and W of 125W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. This monsoonal flow is expected to strengthen E of 115W this weekend into early next week, with seas building to 8-12 ft. Elsewhere, northerly wind waves combined with SE swell from Genevieve will produce combined seas of 8-10 ft over the northern waters between 120W and 130W late Thu into the weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week and over the weekend several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves little. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. $$ B Reinhart