099 AXPZ20 KNHC 192151 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2140 UTC Wed Aug 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 21.4N 110.1W at 19/2100 UTC moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater within 210 nm SE quadrant and 180 nm elsewhere with seas to 38 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong within 60 nm of the center. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, with this motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is expected to move just southwest of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula tonight and Thursday, and move away from the peninsula on Friday. Little change in strength is expected tonight, with gradual weakening anticipated Thursday through Friday. Genevieve is expected to remain a hurricane while it passes just west of the southern Baja California peninsula. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is analyzed near 100W south of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 98W and 101W. A tropical wave axis is analyzed near 125W south of 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N79W to 12N100W, resumes south of Hurricane Genevieve from 16N111W to a 1009 mb low near 16N125W, then to 14N140W. Besides the convection described above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N east of 93W and scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 107W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about major Hurricane Genevieve. Genevieve will continue producing dangerous, life-threatening marine conditions over the next three days as it crosses the offshore waters of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur. Peak seas are currently near 39 ft just south of the southern tip of Baja California Sur. These seas will gradually diminish and move north-northwestward with Genevieve. Indirectly due to Genevieve, S to SE winds in the N Gulf of California will reach to strong Thu and Fri with seas building to 6 to 7 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough, which presently extends along 08N-09N, will gradually lift northward over the next several days. This will result in freshening winds and building seas off the coast of Central America through the upcoming weekend. Seas should peak at 8 to 12 ft in the Central American zones tonight through at least Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak 1024 mb high is centered north of our area at 33N137W. The modest pressure gradient between that and the monsoon trough is promoting only fresh to moderate NE trades. South of the monsoon trough, SW winds are also moderate to fresh. East of 105W these SW winds will strengthen to strong on Sat through Mon with peak seas building to 8 to 12 ft. West of Baja California Norte between 120W and 130W, SE swell from Genevieve combined with N wind wave will produce combined seas of 8 to 10 ft from Thu to Sat. An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while it moves little. $$ Landsea