000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191557 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1532 UTC Wed Aug 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 20.9N 109.7W at 19/1500 UTC moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater within 270 nm SE quadrant, 210 nm NW quadrant, 200 nm NE quadrant, and 150 nm SW quadrant with seas to 40 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong within 60 nm of the center. A turn toward the northwest is expected this afternoon or tonight, with this motion continuing through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is expected to move near but just southwest of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula tonight and Thursday, and move away from the peninsula on Friday. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, but Genevieve is expected to remain a strong hurricane while it passes west of the southern Baja California peninsula. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is analyzed near 98W south of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 98W and 101W. A tropical wave axis is analyzed near 125W south of 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 10N97W, resumes SW of Hurricane Genevieve from 18N115W to a 1011 mb low near 16N125W, then to 15N140W. Besides the convection described above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N east of 93W and scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 110W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about major Hurricane Genevieve. Genevieve will continue producing dangerous, life-threatening marine conditions over the next few days as it crosses the offshore waters of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur. Peak seas are currently near 40 ft just south of the southern tip of Baja California Sur. These seas will gradually diminish will moving north-northwestward with Genevieve. Indirectly from Genevieve, S to SE winds in the N Gulf of California will reach to strong Thu and Fri with seas building to 6 to 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough, which presently extends along 08N-09N, will gradually lift northward over the next several days. This will result in freshening winds and building seas off the coast of Central America through the upcoming weekend. Seas should peak at 8 to 12 ft in the Central American zones tonight through at least Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak 1022 mb high is centered north of our area at 33N137W. The modest pressure gradient between that and the monsoon trough is promoting only fresh to moderate NE trades. South of the monsoon trough, SW winds are also moderate to fresh. East of 105W these SW winds will strengthen to strong on Sat and Sun with peak seas building to 8 to 12 ft. West of Baja California Norte between 120W and 130W, SE swell from Genevieve combined with N wind wave will produce combined seas of 8 to 10 ft from Thu to Sat. An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while it moves little. $$ Landsea