000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190250 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0250 UTC Wed Aug 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 19.5N 109.0W at 19/0300 UTC moving NW at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 180 nm W semicircle, 200 nm NE quadrant and 240 nm SE quadrant with seas to 40 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 16N to 21N between 104W and 110W, and within 60 nm of a line from 16N107W to 11N112W. The center of Genevieve is expected to move near but southwest of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Wed night and Thu, and move away from the peninsula on Fri. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, followed by weakening on Thu and Fri. Large swells produced by Genevieve will spread northward along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula through Thu. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 95W south of 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N within 180 nm W of the wave axis. A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 123W south of 20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 13N to 18N within 180 nm E of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N77W to 11N85W to 08N90W to 15N99W, resumes west of Hurricane Genevieve from 16N111W to 10N117W, then continues from 15N122W to 12N129W to 14N140W. Besides the convection described above, scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough E of 85W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough between 85W and 92W, and within 60 nm of the monsoon trough W of 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about major Hurricane Genevieve. Genevieve will continue producing extremely dangerous, life-threatening marine conditions over the next several days as it crosses the offshore waters of west- central Mexico and Baja California Sur. Outside of Genevieve, generally gentle to moderate winds prevail across the offshore waters of southern Mexico and Baja California Norte this evening. A large area of 8 ft or greater seas extends about 500 nm SE of the center of Genevieve. As Genevieve passes west of Baja California Sur Wed into Thu, expect freshening winds over the southern Gulf of California with seas building to 8-11 ft in southerly swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent GOES-16 satellite and lightning data show scattered strong convection near the coast of Costa Rica and Panama in association with an active monsoon trough. Moderate monsoonal flow prevails across the offshore waters roughly south of 08N this evening, with seas running 5-7 ft. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle, variable winds persist near the coast of Central America. The monsoonal flow will freshen Wed into the upcoming weekend as the monsoon trough gradually lifts northward. This will build seas to 7-10 ft off Central America during the latter parts of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about major Hurricane Genevieve. The 1010 mb remnant low of Fausto is centered near 23N131W. The associated winds are 20 kt or less, with seas less than 8 ft. This low is expected to open up into a trough on Wed and continue moving SW for the next couple days. Moderate southerly monsoon flow will freshen Wed into the upcoming weekend, resulting in areas of 8-10 ft seas south of the monsoon trough generally E of 100W. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this system this weekend while it moves little. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. $$ B Reinhart