000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2032 UTC Tue Aug 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 18.7N 108.7W at 18/2100 UTC moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection within 240 nm in the NE quadrant, 180 nm in the SE and SW quadrant, and scattered moderate convection is withing 140 nm in the NW quadrant. The center of Genevieve is expected to move parallel to but well offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico today. The center of the hurricane is then forecast to move to the southwest of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Wed night and Thu. Genevieve should hold its intensity or strengthen a little through Wed, but steady weakening is expected after that. Large swells produced by Genevieve will spread northward along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula through Wed. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 93W south of 19N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 89W-97W. A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 122W south of 20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 14N98W, then resumes west of Hurricane Genevieve from 15N110W to 15N124W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 14N139W. Besides the convection associated to the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 03N- 09N between 78W-90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about Hurricane Genevieve, which is expected to continue rapidly strengthening during the next day or so while moving parallel to but well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Genevieve will produce extremely dangerous, life-threatening marine conditions over the next several days as it crosses the offshore waters. Elsewhere, mainly gentle northerly winds prevail over the Baja California offshore waters. Altimeter data shows 3-5 ft seas offshore of Baja California Sur. A line of strong convection is noted in GOES-16 satellite imagery and lightning data moving westward off the coast of Nayarit and Jalisco. Gusty winds and locally rough seas can be expected near these storms. Farther south, a large area of fresh to strong southerly flow is noted in recent scatterometer data well to the S and SE of Genevieve, which is supporting large seas across the offshore waters of southern Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Overnight scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate southerly flow along the monsoon trough E of 99W, with light and variable winds near the coast of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Seas are generally 4-6 ft across the region. The monsoonal flow will freshen during the middle and latter parts of the week as the monsoon trough lifts northward. This will build seas to 7-10 ft off Central America by Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about rapidly strengthening Hurricane Genevieve. A broad area of fresh to strong southerly winds persists well south of the center of Genevieve, with associated seas of 8-11 ft based on overnight altimeter data. The 1012 mb remnant low of former Tropical Depression Fausto is centered near 23N130W. No convection is associated with this low pressure. This low is expected to continue weakening and dissipate by Wed morning. Elsewhere, a partial scatterometer pass near the remnant low of Ten-E around 15N138W shows fresh winds in its NW quadrant, with seas likely to 8 ft. This low will continue moving westward and likely cross 140W tonight or early Wed. Moderate southerly monsoon flow will freshen during the middle and latter parts of the week, resulting in areas of 8 to 10 ft seas south of the monsoon trough generally E of 95W. $$ Torres